Controlling air traffic's future: Can ambitions for shifting to satellite-based ATC be realized?

May 19, 2008--Eurocontrol and US FAA have drawn up elaborate plans outlining a futuristic air traffic control environment in which satellite navigation technology replaces ground-based radar to allow airlines to meet anticipated growth in air travel demand, but broad and difficult political compromises, industry-government cooperation, a commitment to implementation and--most importantly--high levels of funding will be necessary for the visions to be realized. The organizations have roughly targeted 2025 for widespread implementation of "SESAR" and "Next-Gen" and, given the complexity of the endeavor, the time to move beyond the planning phase is at hand.

"We have quite a developed idea of what we want SESAR to deliver," Eurocontrol DG David McMillan said during a visit to Washington this month. "Now we have to work on the underpinnings." But as they move to make tangible progress, both Eurocontrol and FAA have come up against political impediments.

Individual EU nations have stubbornly resisted ceding control over airspace, casting doubt on whether the "Single European Sky"--without which SESAR's efficiencies become questionable--will ever come to fruition. Meanwhile, the US Congress has bickered over proposed FAA reauthorization legislation that would establish funding for Next-Gen, which officials estimate will cost government and industry a combined $50 billion. FAA's current operations are being funded via temporary extensions, and a financing mechanism for shifting to satellite-based ATC likely won't be enacted until 2009 at the earliest.

"It would be a concern to me if the US is unable to fund Next-Gen in the way it's supposed to be funded," McMillan said. "I hope that the US will step up." This is particularly important, he added, because it makes no sense for the EU and US to develop divergent ATC systems. "It's very important that Next-Gen and SESAR come up with the same way of operating," he explained, adding that he emphasized during a meeting this month with FAA Acting Administrator Bobby Sturgell that "we have a global aviation industry and we need to walk in step" to develop future ATC systems that are compatible.

Long-term funding for SESAR is itself far from certain. In its SESAR "master plan" unveiled last month, Eurocontrol pointed to a host of "high-priority risks" that could prevent the EU from achieving the "paradigm shift" in air traffic management that McMillan says is needed to ensure commercial aviation meets future capacity, environmental and safety targets. Among the potential pitfalls are "nonhomogenous deployment across Europe" and a "governance structure. . .not capable" of ensuring deployment, "future investment in SESAR by stakeholders will not be secured," "delays to the availability of new technologies," an inadequate "regulatory framework" to support ATC modernization, and "failure to manage human resources."

The final and perhaps most serious risk cited: "No agreement on future defragmentation of European airspace." When asked by ATWOnline whether SESAR's envisioned efficiencies will be negated by a failure to implement Single Sky, McMillan insisted that "technology is going to enable you to [improve efficiency] no matter where you manage it from." But he acknowledged that achieving "benefits in an economically efficient way will be difficult without [ATC] consolidation. . .national networks are better optimized than regional networks and better still across Europe."